[h=1]Why Brady isn't a top-5 fantasy QB[/h][h=3]Patriots signal-caller should be viewed as a midtier QB1[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Over the past three seasons, it has been a given that Tom Brady will be one of the top three quarterbacks in fantasy football.
After his playoff exit last season, though -- coupled with a rough offseason for the Pats -- it's time to question whether Brady will continue to rank on that level of top fantasy quarterbacks.
As good as Brady was last year in terms of fantasy point production (329, tied for second most in the league), it would have taken only a 26-point decline to see him fall from tied for second among quarterbacks to fifth.
This shows the competition is quite tough and indicates it will likely take more than just a repeat performance for Brady to keep his top-three status.
The odds of that occurring are quite low, as there are many factors pointing toward Brady having a drop-off from his 2012 level.
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Terrible vertical and stretch vertical metrics
Brady's 10.1 vertical yards per attempt (passes thrown 11 or more yards) ranked 28th in the league last season. His stretch vertical YPA (production on aerials thrown 20 or more yards) wasn't much better, ranking 23rd.
Some may say Brady's Patriots teammates were to blame for these poor metrics, but for perspective, Kevin Kolb ranked 27th in VYPA (10.2) and Mark Sanchez ranked 29th (9.9).
Kolb had one of the worst pass-blocking lines in recent memory, and by the end of the season, Jeremy Kerley was Sanchez's only consistent target. The entirety of Brady's supporting personnel was much greater than either of those two.
Rob Gronkowski's injury woes
Gronkowski is now the best pass-catching target on New England's roster. Despite missing five regular-season games, Gronkowski led the Patriots in touchdown receptions (11), was tied for second in receptions of 20 or more yards (13) and receiving yards per game (71.8) and ranked third in total receiving yards (790). Losing him for any period of time would be a big loss, and his physical ailments are such that he likely will miss some games this season.
Danny Amendola may be a step down from Wes Welker
Amendola is seen as being Welker's equal, but last year, his 5.2 YPA on short passes ranked 37th out of 41 receivers with at least 50 short pass targets. By contrast, Welker tallied a 7.7 YPA that was third best in that category. It is possible Amendola will step up his short pass quantity and quality to Welker's levels, but it isn't a given -- and even a small decline would damage Brady's top-three chances.
There is a path to run the football more often
New England may decide that the fast-paced approach that led to the Patriots posting the most offensive plays in the league last year isn't the best game plan given their pass receiving and defensive pass coverage personnel issues. That thought could be even more compelling given that there is a strong alternate game plan path on the ground.
The Patriots posted a 49.8 percent good blocking rate last season that ranked third in the league. GBR is a metric that gauges how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers good blocking, which is loosely defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rushing attempt. With that kind of setup for success, Bill Belichick may decide it is better to lean a bit more on the rushing attack and take some pressure off his wide receivers, tight ends and -- by controlling the clock -- defensive secondary.
Schedule
According to the rankings in my 2013 fantasy football draft guide, the Patriots' passing matchup schedule ranks as the fourth hardest in the league. Their rushing matchups certainly aren't easy, as their schedule strength in that area ranks tied for 17th, but they are more favorable than the aerial matchups. Belichick is known for tailoring his game plan to aim his team's strong suits at the other team's weaknesses, and if that happens this year, it will mean more rushing attempts and fewer passing attempts.
Even a slight decline in pass attempts will hurt. Let's assume for a moment that Brady's pass volume, which was a career high in 2012, isn't going to see a significant drop but instead will see only a marginal decline. If we use a points per attempt ratio to determine the value of each pass attempt, it would take a decline of only 20-30 pass attempts to see a drop in the range of 6-8 points. That level of drop-off would still leave Brady with one of his most prolific pro campaigns from an attempt perspective. If the attempts decline moves to something more in the range of 50 pass attempts (which would give Brady 587 passes, or the fourth highest total of his career), the estimated point drop would be 23.
Decline in rushing TDs
Brady rushed for a career-high four touchdowns last season. Prior to the 2012 campaign, Brady had only 10 rushing scores in his 12 NFL seasons. Any level of decline would add up in a hurry.
Brady does have more than his share of positive factors -- ranking first in short pass YPA and second in bad decision rate -- but the overwhelming amount of potential negative factors make it seem highly unlikely he will repeat his topflight numbers from last year. When that is combined with the glut of topflight fantasy quarterbacks, it means Brady should be looked at as more of a midtier QB1 rather than an upper-tier QB1.
Over the past three seasons, it has been a given that Tom Brady will be one of the top three quarterbacks in fantasy football.
After his playoff exit last season, though -- coupled with a rough offseason for the Pats -- it's time to question whether Brady will continue to rank on that level of top fantasy quarterbacks.
As good as Brady was last year in terms of fantasy point production (329, tied for second most in the league), it would have taken only a 26-point decline to see him fall from tied for second among quarterbacks to fifth.
This shows the competition is quite tough and indicates it will likely take more than just a repeat performance for Brady to keep his top-three status.
The odds of that occurring are quite low, as there are many factors pointing toward Brady having a drop-off from his 2012 level.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Terrible vertical and stretch vertical metrics
Brady's 10.1 vertical yards per attempt (passes thrown 11 or more yards) ranked 28th in the league last season. His stretch vertical YPA (production on aerials thrown 20 or more yards) wasn't much better, ranking 23rd.
Some may say Brady's Patriots teammates were to blame for these poor metrics, but for perspective, Kevin Kolb ranked 27th in VYPA (10.2) and Mark Sanchez ranked 29th (9.9).
Kolb had one of the worst pass-blocking lines in recent memory, and by the end of the season, Jeremy Kerley was Sanchez's only consistent target. The entirety of Brady's supporting personnel was much greater than either of those two.
Rob Gronkowski's injury woes
Gronkowski is now the best pass-catching target on New England's roster. Despite missing five regular-season games, Gronkowski led the Patriots in touchdown receptions (11), was tied for second in receptions of 20 or more yards (13) and receiving yards per game (71.8) and ranked third in total receiving yards (790). Losing him for any period of time would be a big loss, and his physical ailments are such that he likely will miss some games this season.
Danny Amendola may be a step down from Wes Welker
Amendola is seen as being Welker's equal, but last year, his 5.2 YPA on short passes ranked 37th out of 41 receivers with at least 50 short pass targets. By contrast, Welker tallied a 7.7 YPA that was third best in that category. It is possible Amendola will step up his short pass quantity and quality to Welker's levels, but it isn't a given -- and even a small decline would damage Brady's top-three chances.
There is a path to run the football more often
New England may decide that the fast-paced approach that led to the Patriots posting the most offensive plays in the league last year isn't the best game plan given their pass receiving and defensive pass coverage personnel issues. That thought could be even more compelling given that there is a strong alternate game plan path on the ground.
The Patriots posted a 49.8 percent good blocking rate last season that ranked third in the league. GBR is a metric that gauges how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers good blocking, which is loosely defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rushing attempt. With that kind of setup for success, Bill Belichick may decide it is better to lean a bit more on the rushing attack and take some pressure off his wide receivers, tight ends and -- by controlling the clock -- defensive secondary.
Schedule
According to the rankings in my 2013 fantasy football draft guide, the Patriots' passing matchup schedule ranks as the fourth hardest in the league. Their rushing matchups certainly aren't easy, as their schedule strength in that area ranks tied for 17th, but they are more favorable than the aerial matchups. Belichick is known for tailoring his game plan to aim his team's strong suits at the other team's weaknesses, and if that happens this year, it will mean more rushing attempts and fewer passing attempts.
Even a slight decline in pass attempts will hurt. Let's assume for a moment that Brady's pass volume, which was a career high in 2012, isn't going to see a significant drop but instead will see only a marginal decline. If we use a points per attempt ratio to determine the value of each pass attempt, it would take a decline of only 20-30 pass attempts to see a drop in the range of 6-8 points. That level of drop-off would still leave Brady with one of his most prolific pro campaigns from an attempt perspective. If the attempts decline moves to something more in the range of 50 pass attempts (which would give Brady 587 passes, or the fourth highest total of his career), the estimated point drop would be 23.
Decline in rushing TDs
Brady rushed for a career-high four touchdowns last season. Prior to the 2012 campaign, Brady had only 10 rushing scores in his 12 NFL seasons. Any level of decline would add up in a hurry.
Brady does have more than his share of positive factors -- ranking first in short pass YPA and second in bad decision rate -- but the overwhelming amount of potential negative factors make it seem highly unlikely he will repeat his topflight numbers from last year. When that is combined with the glut of topflight fantasy quarterbacks, it means Brady should be looked at as more of a midtier QB1 rather than an upper-tier QB1.
